CRMA · Risk Decisions
Scenario Simulation
Replay a past event as if it were unfolding today. Read the evidence as it arrives, weigh the uncertainty, and make a defensible DOC decision — deciding not to act, with reasons, can be the right call.
Uganda floods — May 2019
flood · Uganda — Kampala
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Eritrea Highlands floods — Aug 2019
flood · Eritrea — Maekel (Central Highlands)
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
South Sudan Upper Nile floods — Oct 2019
flood · South Sudan — Upper Nile
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Djibouti City floods — Nov 2019
flood · Djibouti — Djibouti City
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Ethiopia Addis / Akaki River floods — May 2021
flood · Ethiopia — Addis Abeba / Akaki
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Rwanda floods / landslides — May 2023
flood · Rwanda — Western Province
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Somalia Deyr floods — 2023
flood · Somalia — Lower Shabelle
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Burundi floods — April 2024
flood · Burundi — Bujumbura
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Kenya Nairobi floods — April 2024
flood · Kenya — Nairobi
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Tanzania floods — April 2024
flood · Tanzania — Dar es Salaam
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Sudan Khartoum floods — Aug 2019
flood · Sudan — Khartoum
Signal: tail · starts lead (forecast window opens)
Nairobi River flash flood — March 2026
flood · Kenya — Nairobi
Signal: tail · starts T-5 days